Wednesday, November 24, 2010

How we all dance to one man's tune

When president Jayawardene introduced the 1978 Constitution it was the common belief of the opposition that it was undemocratic and at the best interest of the governing party than the country. Only UNP defended the constitution but after getting the taste of their own medicine UNP also came to the stance that there should be serious amendments to the constitution. Run upto the 2005 elections almost anyone agreed that a new constitution should be introduced. Almost every presidential candidate and noticeably President Rajapakshe promised to abolish the executive presidency and introduce a new constitution.

Then the government had the 2/3rd majority in parliament but rather than introducing a new constitution government went ahead with strenghening it more by removing term limits but the reaction of the public to this broken promise was dull. Yes dull to the point I am only writing this now.

Now how did this constitution that we all despised suddenly became a good this to be continued? Wasn't it because one man, loved it, needed it and just could not throw it away? Should we continue to call ourselves citizens?

Wednesday, April 14, 2010

Hope the government would have 2/3 majority

The ideal case in a democracy is a Strong government with a strong opposition to keep the government in check. But the best thing I can see in this situation is government taking 2/3 majority. The argument that the government would be undemocratic under such a situation is invalid. We have had a demo-crazy for the past few years so there won't be much of a change.

Our moronic constitution that is only loved by the president in power should be changed. This could be the last chance for that. The opportunity is almost too good to be true. Who thought any side would be able to take 140+ seats in this electoral system? There is certainly a chance of this government taking another ineffective, unbalanced and retarded constitution forward but at least it would be up to date. So I guess this is a chance we should take.

UNP is almost useless at the moment. With no leadership change in sight UNP would continue to be in this state. The only struggle for good governance and democracy would come from JVP and Fonseka camp. Yes there is a Fonseka camp, a small group of citizen but yet who are loyal to Fonseka (Could Mahinda be someone without SLFP or his Father's Brother? No. I think that is what led to the the fall out of Fonseka and Mahinda. Rulers are one jealous kind). So more seats for JVP would mean something for the ordinary citizen but no so in the case of UNP.

Then again after giving 2/3rd majority the government can't ask for more from us. This government is a whinning whore. Whenever there is an unsolved problem, a burning issues or bad governance there is always a foreign conspiracy government had to tackle. The mostly used argument was government had not enough power to tackle these foreign conspiracies and sadly majority of people fall right into these lies. After having 2/3rd majority it would be hard to find excuses for failing.

Have 2/3rd majority, then work or walk.

Monday, February 1, 2010

TNA would and should join the government

This government and Mahinda Rajapakshe are here to stay. Tamils in North East are sick of politics and those who are not that disgusted to go and vote in the election day are choosing TNA as their preferred representation. We have to live with those two facts.

Government is desperate for a 2/3 majority in the parliament so they would not have to go against the constitution to make sure president Mahinda Rajapakshe can continue after his second term (Yes all the bigwigs of SLFP who are dreaming of becoming the SLFP leader and president of the country or at least the Prime minister after Mahinda take note of that). Even with the inevitable landslide win that is just around the corner for the government it is not likely to receive a 2/3 majority. So as of now Basil must be hatching the next plan on how to achieve that 2/3 majority. What I suspect is that the plan will be a three staged one.

1.) Use all force, both legal and illegal to get as much seats as possible.

2.) Direct any UNP pm's who can be wooed to the government side with either money, blackmailing or perks to contest under the UNP led front and then cross over after the elections.

3.) Since it is unlikey to gain a 2/3 majority even after those try to get TNA to contest under the government because seats of North East are crucial.

I think TNA contesting with the government is a good thing for several reasons. First this hate mongering politics should stop. TNA should try to align with main stream politics of Sri Lanka. With the mighty propaganda machine of the government there is no chance for any one other than the government to side with TNA. The moment TNA side with any other major party, the government would start it's fear mongering campaigns. For national conciliation best thing is government and TNA to join hands.

Next thing is for those who are willing to look at the truth in eye to understand that Mahinda is also just another politician. That he too would join with anyone just like Fonseka, Ranil or any other main stream politician. That opposition been traitors and government consisting of patriots is just another propaganda stunt to instill fear and suspicion in peoples mind. This could be less important for many but not to me. Until the public is able to read the politician that rule them correctly they would always be fooled.

But those who are so desperate not to see the nudity of the rulers would come up with various theories mostly parroting those that would be originated in government media. They would argue that TNA joining Mahinda is a complete different thing than TNA joining Fonseka.

As much as I like national conciliation I am delighted with opportunities for the public to understand the true landscape of politics too. So I support TNA joining the government.

Tuesday, January 26, 2010

The last desperate lie

The last lie of the election that is. There will newer bigger lies and deceptions if this set keeps ruling us.

It was despicable. Anyone with common sense should have been able to understand that Sarath Fonseka has all requirements to be the president of Sri Lanka. The requirements are not that hard. They are,

1) The candidate should be a citizen of Sri Lanka
2) The candidate should be above 18 years old

Since Fonseka was born and living here the last time we knew is there anyway for him to lose his citizenship here? But what the government painted was a different picture, that Fonseka would not be able to be sworn in as the president even if he win. Now what kind of a dirty tactic is that which is obviously a lie?

But what some people want to find out is why didn't Fonseka announce he is not registered to vote. What kind of a question is that when it is clear what government did was false propaganda. If Fonseka announced, it would have better but is there any reason for anyone to announce that they are not registered to vote for whatever the reasons?

The real reason to concerned with is the lie and false propaganda of the government on the final election hours but those who don't want to see the nakedness of the rulers are trying hard to peek at the underwear of Fonseka.

I'm sorry for you SittingNut

The latest finding of SittingNut is the fact that Fonseka alliance is an unholy alliance and all those who are supporting him are evil. That all the 'good people' would go and vote for Mahinda Rajapakshe to defeat evil. For a moment I was wondering whether this was meant as a joke or not. Even hate mongers like Hudson Samarasinghe or Wimal Weerawansa don't stoop to this level.

The irony is that this is the same person who called the president a buffalo, more insanely the supporters of the president as the buffalo herd. He used this insult each and every time to the president in a sarcastic way but rarely uses it now and when reminded, cheaply claims something on the line that buffalo was meant as both favorably and unfavorably. He doesn't acknowledge he made a mistake in judging Mahinda or an explanation on why he used to call him that insult each and every time but is not using now unless reminded.

But maybe we shouldn't be concerned about these hate mongering claims. Maybe SittingNut doesn't mean something bad when he calls Fonseka camp as the evil unholy alliance or Mahinda supporters as good people. Maybe one day when he religiously chooses another political camp he will say that what he meant as the evil unholy alliance was something both favourable and unfavorable and actually not something so evil.

Monday, January 25, 2010

Elections, peaceful as of now

Election has been peaceful as of now. There is no reason to believe it would turn violent in the last moment.

Indi reports of some minor incidents that has occurred in various parts of the island. But as he also points out these are not very serious and would not have any drastic effect on the final results.

But there are concerns regarding what is going on in North where majority of votes would go to Opposition candidate Sarath Fonseka( Some are skeptical about this like SittingNut, but it is obvious to anyone who has some connection with the earth).

There had been some explosions. Obviously these are done by the Government side and are not to create any physical harm but to try to scare voters because the advantage is for Fonseka in those parts.

Then government is claiming that JVP parliamentaraian Wijtha Herath is been arrested in vavuniya with a group of army personnel who were trying to create violence. A little amount of common sense is enough to realize that Fonseka has an advantage in North and there is reason for them to create violence in North. But there will always be people who would believe in these lies, both in blogsphere and out. What likely happened is Wijitha Herath and their elections monitores were obstructed in vavuniya and delayed for some hours. Shame on government officials who are aiding the party in power. Will have to wait to learn what exactly happened.

Then there is the report of IDP's not receiving transport the government promised. It is obvious (to anyone connected with the earth) that these votes are advantages to Fonseka or otherwise government would have made sure these people get adequate transport to go and vote.

The result of these pathetic attempts would be voter turn out in North would be much lower than in south and Tamils up north would lose more confidence in our state.

But all in all these incidents would not have much effect in the final results and overall I am happy on how things are going on.

Sunday, January 24, 2010

Sad but it looks like government would rig the polls

Our good friend at kottu VIC says Mahinda would win and on 27th the opposition would blame on election malpractices for the defeat. Well that is likely but also what is going around suggests that the Government is desperate(it is not confident to the level of it's supporters like VIC, SittingNut, etc) and is prepared to win this by even hook or by crook.

There was a serious incident where a navy lorry had been caught transporting ballot boxes and government finally succeeding in releasing it. Have a look at this article on Lanka Truth(there are videos as well).

I dread for what is happening under the hoods.

Those who will vote for Fonseka

1) Those who have had enough of corruption and bad governance.

2) Strict nationalists who believe Ranil to be not a nationalist and Mahinda to be a fake nationalist.

3) Elite section of our society who thinks they are above the average Sri Lankan.

4) Stringent UNP supporters

5) Radical youth who always want the status-quo to be challenged.

6) secularists who understand separation of religion and governance(this must be an extreme minority)

7) Corruption cronies who could not get to the inner circle of Mahinda and is thinking of getting closer to UNP or Fonseka.

8) Those who believe in Open economy(mostly the business class).

9) Liberals and those who value individual freedom.

who will vote for Mahinda

1) Corruption cronies who are receiving direct and indirect financial gains through political appointments, contracts and pure theft. eg Mervin Silva, Somarathna Dissanayake, Sajin vas Gunawardana

2) Strict nationalists who think Fonseka is a true nationalist but don't like his political allegiances. ex Prof Nalin de Silva

3) Sinhalese racists who hate Tamils(most of this category live abroad) ex- Prof Nalin de silva is good here as well

4) Faithful Buddhists who think Mahinda is very religious and that religion and governance should be closely linked

5) Those who want to prove that they are part of the true Sri Lankan identity. ex Jackson Anthony, Probably Sitting Nut

6) Middle class who hates Ranil's Colombo 7 associations.

7) Stringent SLFP supporters

8) Those who are leftist and doesn't believe in full open economy

9) Those who believe Mahinda to be the lesser evil of the two

10) Unsuspecting people who were caught by the fear mongering campaign of the government

Saturday, January 23, 2010

Hoping with statistics

I hope Sarath Fonseka would win the presidential election that would be held in 26th, two days from today. These two days are crucial. Although campaigning should have ended by 12 pm yesterday government media would continue to campaign for current president for these two days as well.

Fonseka has a real chance of winning this race. Those who pretend to know the probable mandate of the public is only counting on the past provincial council election results. Provincial council results are not effective enough to be concerned with because most of opposition supporters didn't vote because they didn't want to be in loosing side and political landscape has changed dramatically following Fonsekas entry as the common candidate, specially in the last few weeks.

I would try to analyze previous presidential election results and try to come into a conclusion about the possible outcome this time around.

Following are statistics of 2005 in millions

Votes of Mahinda 4.8
Votes of Ranil 4.7

JVP votes went to Mahinda 0.4
JVP votes that would go to Mahinda this time around because of Wimal's split and discontent about their current political allegiances 0.1(25%)

After change of JVP votes

Fonseka 5.0
Mahinda 4.5

UNP votes that would be cast to Mahinda this time 0.4(which is 8%)
SLFP votes that would be cast to Fonseka 0.1(whic is only 2%)

standing after vote changes between the camps

Mahinda 4.8
Fonseka 4.7

North votes that were not casted previous time 0.5(This is a rough guess, not sure about number of votes and not sure they would go and vote in high numbers or how many would go to other candidates)

New Northern vote split between two
Fonseka 0.33 (66% of votes)
Mahinda 0.17

After northern votes
Fonseka 5.03 (50.3%)
Mahinda 4.97 (49.7%)

Which deliveres Fonseka a slight lead against Mahinda.

I was biased towards a fonseka win during the calculations, I changed my mind against some statistics when it looked like Mahinda would lead Fonseka. But I gave Mahinda more advantage when calculating, like in JVP vote split where I gave 25% split for Mahinda and in vote changes between UNP and SLFP i gave 8% unp vote changes against only 2% of SLFP vote change.

So people if you want change over more of the same keep that hope.